We ran a small test on whether AI idea-validation means anything. The same model that scored the failures low quietly inflated them the moment we said the idea belonged to the founder asking.
Startups rarely die from a surprise. They die in about seven ways you can name in advance, each with a base rate and the question a good opponent would ask first.
An opponent that attacks a weak version of your idea is worthless, and so is one that defends a weak version of the objection. The discipline that makes adversarial review honest is the steelman.
Base rates can sharpen your judgment about a startup idea and rank what to de-risk. They cannot tell you whether you will win. Here is where that line sits, and why it matters.
Every startup-validation tool hands the founder a better mirror. What protects a company idea is an opponent: an independent check built to find the flaw, not to agree.